The Correction in the US Equities Markets Nobody Wants to Talk About

Posted on March 17, 2013. Filed under: Companies, Debt Ceiling, Economy, Financial Crisis, Fiscal Cliff, Securities | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

Edgar Perez, Author, The Speed Traders, and Knightmare on Wall Street

Edgar Perez, Author, The Speed Traders, and Knightmare on Wall Street

Stocks in the US markets slipped on Friday, ending the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s (DJIA) longest winning streak since 1996, just after snapping a 10-day run. Data from Thomson Reuters’ Lipper service showed that investors in U.S.-based funds had poured $11.26 billion of new cash into stock funds this last week, the most since late January. The DJIA slipped 25.03 points, or 0.17 percent, to 14,514.11 at the close. Meanwhile, it was announced that the fewest workers on record were fired in January and job openings rebounded, showing employers were gaining confidence the U.S. expansion would be sustained.

According to some pundits, recent market activity is essentially driven by positive corporate earnings. The S&P500 Price/Earnings (PE) ratio is currently slightly high at 16.5, if we compare with past indicators. The median S&P500 Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) PE ratio has been about 14.5 over the last 100 years; average is around 16. It was during much of 2009 when the disconnect between price and TTM earnings was so extreme that the P/E ratio was in triple digits, as high as the 120s. Going back to the 1870’s, the average P/E ratio has been about 15; therefore, the US equity markets are not excessively valued, leaving some room for further growth.

Other pundits point to the Federal Reserve’s determination to continue stimulating the economy with increased liquidity. Mohammed Apabhai, head of Asia trading at Citigroup Global Markets, favors this train of thought. He has noted that there is a 70 percent correlation between stock market performance and liquidity, “whether it’s through the promise of lower rates, QE (Quantitative Easing) or promise of more QE.” The Federal Reserve has launched three rounds of Quantitative Easing since the financial crisis hit in 2008.

More likely, both factors are in play, very good corporate earnings and monetary policy that pushes investors to take risks in equities. So is the earnings momentum sustainable? Unfortunately, savings from the smaller share of the pie from labor, government spending and earnings coming from emerging markets (EM) outside the US are all factors that will be curtailed at some moment. Is the Fed eager to continue being the huge player in this equation? Some of its members are increasingly worried about the effectiveness of the continued QE; if the labor market recovers, as the January numbers showed, the Fed most probably might be ending its bond purchases soon.

As pointed out by James Saft, wages in the US have taken a smaller and smaller piece of the pie; now below 44pc of GDP and dropping, down several percentage points since 1999. That is in part the consequence of globalization and the offshoring of jobs. However, the labor which can be offshored largely has already been and the likely trend is for new manufacturing technologies to start pushing jobs back into the US. As has been of national knowledge as well, there is a real danger of declining government spending. A dollar spent by the government is a dollar that supports household income, and consumption, and of course corporate profits; there will be less dollars starting this month thank to the sequester, a series of spending cuts and tax increases aimed at reducing the budget deficit.

Emerging markets are looking overstretched heading into the second quarter, Barclays Capital said in a report dated March 15, pointing out that the cyclical recoveries in EM have slowed down. Consensus growth forecasts (according to Bloomberg) have been revised down by 0.75 percentage points on average since mid-2012.  EM equities have been slow to react to these developments due partly to the continued inflows into the asset class from retail clients. The correction has started recently and the performance by country year to date has been mixed, but the most pronounced selloffs have been associated with the largest revisions to GDP growth forecasts. Adding to this dire situation, the economies of emerging markets grew at a slower pace in February than the month before, according to HSBC’s monthly purchasing managers’ index. The PMI recorded a level of 52.3, down from 53.8 in January, its lowest since August. The index covers 16 leading emerging markets, including India, Brazil and China, which all saw their rate of growth fall. Investors had been questioning whether emerging markets, whose growth depends in part on exports to mature markets, could continue to expand at fast rates of almost 10% in some cases.

What the equity markets want indeed is stable and/or predictably increasing US profits and the Fed to stay in the bond markets. Saft ironically suggested that markets’ best hope might be a cut in government spending deep enough to kill job growth and indefinitely extend QE, something that nobody else would agree with. Instead, markets would be happy with a bit of positive news today followed by another bit of negative news tomorrow. Unfortunately for the markets, profits will start showing stagnation starting with first quarter results. Federal Reserve said in September 2012, when QE3 was announced, that it would start pumping $40 billion a month to purchase agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) until the labor market improves substantially. When will the Fed determine that the job market has made enough progress to reduce stimulus? The numbers for February will prove paramount in this regard. As these two important factors converge in a nightmarish scenario, equities markets should beware of the ensuing correction, coming as early as in the second quarter.

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美高频交易专家: 速度与策略决定成败

Posted on July 29, 2012. Filed under: Book Review, Conference, Event Announcements, Flash Crash, Practitioners, Regulations, Strategies, Workshop | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

The Speed Traders, An Insider’s Look at the New High-Frequency Trading Phenomenon That is Transforming the Investing World2008年金融危机以来,许多对冲基金纷纷倒闭,投资者们也谨慎地捂紧钱袋,然而,有一种交易模式却在不断扩张,以它为商业模式的基金也如雨后春笋,这就是高频交易(High-Frequency Trading)。这种盈利模式的核心竞争力在哪里,前景又如何?

2008年金融危机以来,许多对冲基金纷纷倒闭,投资者们也谨慎地捂紧钱袋,然而,有一种交易模式却在不断扩张,以它为商业模式的基金也如雨后春笋,这就是高频交易(High-Frequency Trading)。这种盈利模式的核心竞争力在哪里,前景又如何?

近日,美国高频交易专家、《交易快手:透视正在改变投资世界的新兴高频交易》作者埃德加·佩雷斯(Edgar Perez)接受第一财经日报《财商》记者专访。他表示,实现毫秒或微秒交易的速度是高频交易的核心竞争力。目前,在发达的市场如美国和欧洲,高频交易已 占到交易量的一半以上。而假以时日,中国有望成为世界上最大的高频交易市场。

埃德加·佩雷斯小档案

“唯一成就大事的方法是做你热爱的事。如果你还没有发现它,就继续寻找,不要气馁。当你找到它的时候,你的心会让你知道。”埃德加·佩雷斯告诉记者,这是他的座右铭。

对于佩雷斯来说,金融领域是他热爱的事业。在获得哥伦比亚MBA学位后,他曾任花旗银行副总经理、麦肯锡公司的顾问。作为事业的高潮,他撰写了《交 易快手:透视正在改变投资世界的新兴高频交易》。该书的英语版本由麦格劳 – 希尔公司出版(2011年),今年,中国金融出版社(2012年)把它翻译成中文,目前,该书的印尼语和葡萄牙语版本正在翻译中。

《交易快手:透视正在改变投资世界的新兴高频交易》对高频交易进行了独到的分析。这到底是一种什么样的曾经“令人充满恐惧的技术”?它如何搞乱市 场?如何在两年前“闪电崩盘”中推波助澜?这本书告诉读者,媒体曾经渲染的股市“算牌”的现象已经改变。高频交易完全独立于“巴菲特式”的长期战略,它们 运作于完全不同的时间框架,并对长期投资组合产生的利润影响非常小。

佩雷斯对于高频交易的热爱并不止于写书。为了让更多的人了解这一金融市场的新趋势,他创立了交易快手工作室,并任课程主管,讲解高频率交易者如何利用有利可图的策略,来寻找股票、期权、期货和外汇中的阿尔法 。在此之前,他是纽约大学理工学院的兼职教授,教授算法交易和高频财务。

佩雷斯对中国等新兴经济国家有着浓厚的兴趣。2009年,他创立了致力于金融社交活动的黄金网络公司,并建立25000人的数据库。公司定期在纽约为金融人士举办针对中国等新兴经济体的聚会或者讲座,受到热烈欢迎,并被《纽约时报》等报道。他曾经多次接受中文媒体的采访,甚至在他Linkedin上的简历,也使用了中英双语。

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High-Frequency Trading World’s Capital Moving to China with The Speed Traders Workshop 2012 Shanghai and Hong Kong

Posted on July 26, 2012. Filed under: Conference, Event Announcements, Exchanges, Practitioners, Regulations, Strategies, Workshop | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

2012国际高频交易高峰研讨会・上海 - The Speed Traders Workshop 2012 Shanghai, China: How High Frequency Traders Leverage Profitable Strategies to Find Alpha in Equities, Options, Futures and FX, with author Mr. Edgar Perez

2012国际高频交易高峰研讨会・上海

The high-frequency trading world’s capital is moving to China this August with Mr. Edgar Perez, author of The Speed Traders, and former McKinsey & Co. consultant and New York University Adjunct Professor, presenting The Speed Traders Workshop 2012: How Algorithmic and High Frequency Traders Leverage Profitable Strategies to Find Alpha in Equities, Options, Futures and FX, in Shanghai and Hong Kong.

Top securities firms and traders from China, Hong Kong and Singapore trading at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE), Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx), and Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX), are joining these enlightening workshops, which display an agenda full of information and insights, as can be seen through the following sessions:

1.      Understanding High Frequency Trading in Equities and other Asset Classes

  • The need for speed and sophisticated computer programs in generating, routing, and executing orders
  • Co-location and individual data feeds to minimize latency
  • Time-frames for establishing and closing highly-liquid positions
  • Review of the most important strategies: market making, trend following, value arbitrage and others

2.      Key Enablers for High Frequency Trading

  • Technological innovation: computing power, complex event processing, and low-latency bandwidth
  • Shift to electronic trading and the rise of alternative trading systems
  • In-depth look at strategies high frequency traders leverage to find alpha in equities, options, futures and FX
  • The profitability of typical high frequency trading strategies and its evolution

3.      Global Regulatory Overview: from the U.S. and Europe to China and Brazil

  • Regulations in place before the “flash crash”
  • Proposed regulatory initiatives after the “flash crash” in the U.S. and Europe, circuit breakers, limit up limit down and consolidated audit trail
  • High frequency trading in Asia, from Japan, Singapore and India to Hong Kong and China
  • Regulating speed trading to samba beats: Brazil and Mexico

4.      The Future of High Frequency Trading

  • Enhancing profitability: from equities to FX to cross-asset trading
  • High frequency trading in the world: from the U.S. and Europe to China and Brazil
  • Adding ammunition to the high frequency trader toolkit, FPGA, GPUs and enhanced technologies
  • Turning the tables on high frequency trading: the transparency challenge for the buy-side

Mr. Perez has been interviewed on CNBC Cash Flow, CNBC Squawk Box, BNN Business Day, CCTV China, Bankier.pl, TheStreet.com, Leaderonomics, GPW Media, Channel NewsAsia Business Tonight and Cents & Sensibilities. In addition, Mr. Perez has been featured on Caixin, Futures Daily, Xinhua, CBN Newswire, Chinese Financial News, ifeng.com, International Finance News, hexun.com, Finance.QQ.com, Finance.Sina.comThe Korea Times, The Korea Herald, The Star, BMF 89.9, iMoney Hong Kong, CNBC, Bloomberg Hedge Fund Brief, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Dallas Morning News, Valor Econômico, FIXGlobal Trading, TODAY Online, Oriental Daily News and Business Times.

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